By David Mc Williams
The ECB never does anything without an eye on global trends. In the overall scheme of things, despite being the “European” central bank, things that happen in small European countries matter little in setting the tone. In contrast, what happens in big countries with competing currencies to the Euro, matters a lot.
When it comes to small European countries, the ECB’s tactics are always the same: threats, nasty leaks, warnings of Armageddon, orchestrated press releases, all followed by a well-disguised climb down. Expect the same here.
The reason for this is that the ECB has no conventional weapons but it does have the nuclear option: when a country can’t pay its debts, the ECB can cut off the banking system from ECB financing. This brings the country down which will cause chaos not just for the country but, via contagion, for the whole Euro system. So the ECB is condemned to climb down, the best example is Greece, a four-time defaulter within the Euro, and yet money still comes out of its ATM machines in Athens.
But all the while, the ECB is more worried about what is happening in Japan then either Ireland or Greece.
In its most blunt terms, the independence of the Japanese central bank is over. The government has decided it’s time to generate inflation, time to let the Yen fall and kick-start the economy via debasing the currency……………………
- Draghi Counts Cost of Saving Euro as Currency Rebounds (bloomberg.com)
- No deal tonight: ECB wants more time (independent.ie)
- ECB’s Draghi faces heat over euro, Monte Paschi (Reuters) (newsdaily.com)
- ECB set to keep rates on hold (seattlepi.com)
- Euro rockets to 1.3565 on MNI sources story (forexlive.com)
- UPDATE 2-ECB’s Draghi faces heat over euro, Monte Paschi (uk.reuters.com)