What is truth?

A graph showing the economic data from Portuga...

A graph showing the economic data from Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Spain (PIIGS), the United Kingdom, Germany, the EU and the Eurozone for 2009. Data is taken from Eurostat: Most data: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-22042010-BP/EN/2-22042010-BP-EN.PDF GDP growth: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_PUBLIC/2-12022010-BP/EN/2-12022010-BP-EN.PDF Ireland growth (preliminary): http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/economy/current/qna.pdf (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

by Tyler Durden

1. Spain’s national debt is 50% greater than the headline numbers

Spain’s debt-to-GDP balloons from 60% to 90% of GDP with regional and other debts

2. Spain’s housing prices will fall by an additional 35%

Spain built one house for every additional person added to the population during the past two decades; the fall will decrease GDP by ~2% each of the next two years

3. Spain has “zombie” banks with massive loans to developers and to homeowners

Banks have not begun to realize losses and are vastly undercapitalized

4. Spain’s economy has not stabilized and will continue to deteriorate

Spain has the highest unemployment in the developed world, one of the highest overall debt loads, and the most uncompetitive labor market in Europe

5. The EU will not have the firepower or political will to bail out Spain

Rescue fund headline numbers are misleading and count capital that is not yet committed

And here are the problems that will manifest themselves over the next 12 months:

  • Spain’s true debt burden will pass the 90% “tipping point” identified by Rogoff and Reinhart
  • Housing prices will fall further and faster than anticipated (consensus is 15%; CAM estimate is 35%)
  • Banks underestimate the residential real estate loan defaults (consensus estimate is 2.8% vs. CAM estimate of 11%)
  • Expected housing price depreciation and loan defaults will deepen Spain’s recession (additional 2% contraction in 2012 and 2013)
  • Spain will need to refinance €186.1 Billion in 2012 alone

full article at source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/spain-ultimate-doomsday-presentation

Comments on: "Spain: The Ultimate Doomsday Presentation (zerohedge tell us)" (1)

  1. You are painting a rather bleak picture here; unfortunately, it seems 100% the truth. I am an Austrian citizen living between my home country and Spain, and while it is a wonderful country to live in with a bit of money, the truth is that I always get depressed when on those trips to Spain, I meet my old buddies only to learn they are on the dole again, or looking for work which just is not there. No, you tell me, where do we take it from here? Is there a way out? Or let’s just emigrate to happier places which actually have a future?

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