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Falling markets: can yer see whadditis yet?

PART ONE OF A TRIPLE-HEADER ABOUT LOST CONFIDENCE IN MONETARIST SOLUTIONS

From the slog:

Not that many of you are interested, but the Yen is strengthening against the Dollar. This now lumbers Japan not just with the biggest debt in the world, but also one of the strongest – ie most expensive – currencies in that very same world.

This has happened because, from having previously been simply Nips, the Japanese central has been taken over by the Nirps….followers, that is, of a negative interest rate policy. To the best of my knowledge, only one commentator (an American journalist) saw the move coming; and since it was introduced, almost everyone underestimated the immediate effect it would have. This means that if you and I are confused by the varietal illogic involved in all this, it’s OK: so is everyone else.

Or perhaps, the confusion is far from OK.

¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥¥

When everything is connected, everything has unpredictable consequences. This fact alone should be enough to consign globalism to a footnote in history. Were it my decision, I’d insist on digging up Ted Levitt’s remains and scattering them across the oceans of the world. But in reality, Levitt was just another half-baked Ivory Tower Ivy League intellectual whose potty (and provably wrong) ideas about a Global Village were eagerly taken up by economic colonialists everywhere. He should’ve been universally discredited decades ago, but the reason his theory remains the planet’s default business model is that he was spouting exactly the kind of codswallop greedy multinationals and banks wanted to hear.

Globalism makes it easy to evade tax, move jobs offshore, pay slave wages in Asia, claim they didn’t know about stuff, move sovereign spies in under cover, bribe poor governments, amass illegal power, price-attack local competition until it goes to the wall, and cut production costs by insisting that one size fits all.

But unfortunately for everyone outside the 3%, it makes everything far too complex and interdependent to grasp, let alone control. Worse still, bamboozling business journalists and analysts becomes easier than falling off a log….and hiding the real financial condition of a business.

Overall, a globally connected econo-fiscal planet diffuses focus and catches even very smart people off guard.

The ‘idea’ of Nirp is to incentivise banks to lend to companies, so companies can invest more. It’s the same objective as QE – to get banks to do what they don’t want to do, or business doesn’t want in the first place: In Japan, a few banks are wary of lending, but mostly there is little or no demand for their loans. The main problem with most monetarist tosh is that it doesn’t ‘get’ the anthropology of business any more than communism does.

The theory goes that only an idiot would keep their money in a central bank where they have to pay for the dubious privilege: so better to lend it to business. That idea is flawed  first because it’s trying to solve a problem that isn’t there, and second because of the lind spot about human emotions: Japan’s problem is complex and longstanding; but the two biggest factors are confidence among business/consumers and motives among banks.

full article at source:

 

https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/02/10/falling-markets-can-yer-see-whadditis-yet/

Private health care in Ireland If Fin Gael or Labour gets back in !

Deutsche Bank Is Scared!

It all started in mid/late 2014, when the first whispers of a Fed rate hike emerged, which in turn led to relentless increase in the value of the US dollar and the plunge in the price of oil and all commodities, unleashing the worst commodity bear market in history.

The immediate implication of these two concurrent events was missed by most, although we wrote about it and previewed the implications in November of that year in “How The Petrodollar Quietly Died, And Nobody Noticed.”

The conclusion was simple: Fed tightening and the resulting plunge in commodity prices, would lead (as it did) to the collapse of the great petrodollar cycle which had worked efficiently for 18 years and which led to petrodollar nations serving as a source of demand for $10 trillion in US assets, and when finished, would result in theQuantitative Tightening which has offset all central bank attempts to inject liquidity in the markets, a tightening which has since been unleashed by not only most emerging markets and petro-exporters but most notably China, and whose impact has been to not only pressure stocks lower but bring economic growth across the entire world to a grinding halt.

The second, and just as important development, was observed in early 2015: 11 months ago we wrote that “The Global Dollar Funding Shortage Is Back With A Vengeance And “This Time It’s Different” and followed up on it later in the year in “Global Dollar Funding Shortage Intensifies To Worst Level Since 2012” a problem which has manifested itself most notably in Africa where as we wrote recently, virtually every petroleum exporting nation has run out of actual physical dollars.

The point is, it all started with the rising dollar and the ensuing global dollar shortage, and thus, the Fed embarking on what may be the biggest central bank error of all time. To be sure, the consequences are wide ranging: from the collapse in crude, to the tremors and devaluations in China, to the tightening financial conditions, to the (manufacturing) recession in the U.S., and most recently, to whispers that Deutsche Bank, the bank with $60 trillion in notional derivatives, may be the next Lehman Brothers.

Which, incidentally, brings us to none other than one of Deutsche Bank’s most respected credit analysts, Dominic Konstam, who clearly has an appreciation of the existential risk he finds himself in, not only career-wise, but in terms of the entire financial structure. We know this, because after reading his email blast from this morning we realize just how vast the fear, if not sheer terror, is among those who truly realize just how broken the system currently is.

We have reposted his entire letter below, because it represents the most definitive blueprint of everything that is about to be unleashed – especially since it comes from the perspective of one of the people who is currently deep inside Deutsche Bank and realizes just how close to the edge the German bank is.

What Konstam makes clear, in no uncertain terms, is that the the problem is the one we laid out back in November 2014: “It is not oil, it is not in the banks, it is a run on central bank liquidity, especially dollar based and there needs to be much more ($) liquidity.”

He also makes it quite clear that investor fears about contagion are well-founded: here it is in the words of a Deutsche Banker:

full article at source: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-09/deutsche-bank-terrified-here-what-needs-be-done-its-own-words

Here’s a good laugh!

Welcome to Ireland’s Recovery :(

By Kieran Lynch

Man in Ireland named Joe earns €500 gross a week. Sounds ok doesn’t it?
Read this & then decide:
So: Joe Earned €500 Gross pay but it was Taxed €148 (29.6%) so his Net Income (take home pay) = €352 (Source: Price Waterhouse Cooper taxation specialists)

On his way home from work on Friday evening he thought he’d better fill his car with petrol as he needs to be able to drive to work next week so puts in €80 of petrol (of which €46.96 or 58.7% is tax & duty. Source: Revenue.ie)

He feels a bit unwell and hopes he isn’t coming down with something so realises he will need to keep his flat warm as it doesn’t have central heating. He decides he’ll have to buy 2 Bags of coal as he can’t afford to get sick. They’re expensive @ €19.50 each, but he tells himself it’s a necessary expense (€39 of which Carbon tax is €4.80 and Vat €7.29 = €12.09 taxes or 31%. Source: Greenheat.ie)
He worries that he hasn’t brought his girlfriend out on a night out for several months and he didn’t call her yesterday or today as his phone ran out of credit. He hasn’t spoken much to anyone for that matter other than work related people. He decides he’d better top up his mobile phone so he can at least keep in contact with his girlfriend and call his family. He tops his phone up by €50
(Vat €11.50 or 23%) and while he is at the counter sees a special offer of €10 for a bottle of wine or 2 for €18. He figures if he can’t afford to bring his girlfriend out for a meal, he’ll cook her a special one and treat him and her to the wine so chooses one red and one white for €18 (Duty & Vat = €9.72 or 54% tax. Source: ABFI)
He wonders if there are any decent movies on TV and decides to buy the weekend edition newspapers which has all the extra supplements and a TV guide included. He worries at spending the €3.20 on it as its not a strictly necessary expense, but then thinks.. Hey, I deserve to treat myself to a lousy newspaper, don’t I?! (Vat @ 23% = 60c)

The cashier tots up the bill and asks him for a total of €190.20.
Joe hands over his bank debit card with a sense of worry, trying to do a mental calculation as to what will be left in his account, and quickly works out it will be about €160.
His landlord will be expecting the rent tomorrow morning of €100.
Joe mentally calculates that he only has €60 to live on and pay other bills such as food, electricity, car tax, car insurance, his anti-depressant medication prescription etc. He worries that his car needs new tyres, he needs a decent pair of shoes for work, and Christmas is only 4 weeks away. His car will need its yearly NCT inspection in January too! He tries to figure out some way in which he can survive financially and sits down with a pen and paper to look at his income & expenditure.
It is then he realises that after he had already paid 29.6% of his Gross income on taxes, he had just been taxed a further 42.5% of indirect taxes on the already taxed income he used to make this evenings purchases. He has just had 72% of his earnings taken off him in taxes, leaving him barely able to survive. Joe thought about his position and came to the conclusion that in order to be able to eat this week he will have to forego his medication as he simply cannot afford it. He feels a real sense of despair and hopelessness. He can see no hope or chance of a normal future where he can get married, buy a home, raise a family. What can he offer? He can barely survive himself, yet most people consider him well off as he has a job and drives a car. He knows he is one pay packet away from becoming homeless. This fear lives inside him constantly, and he senses it is an underlying force fuelling his depression..
THIS IS THE REALITY FOR COUNTLESS 1000’s OF IRISH CITIZENS TODAY.
The ordinary citizens are being squeezed for every last cent in taxes to pay for a corrupt system that has failed the Irish people but serves the banks and those who created the financial collapse of our economy. Not one banker has been jailed, but countless thousands have been for debts they cannot afford to pay.
Thousands more have lost their homes and the Govt continues to turn a blind eye. Welcome to Ireland  December 21st 2015

source: https://www.facebook.com/mrklynch/posts/1020821161294438

 

Child Slavery

Black & Green Anarchists's photo.

Shared from the Bhensa facebook page.

In the mid 1990’s, a bright young youth made a global impact on Child Slavery. Iqbal Masih’s life was cut short just shy of 13 years but his powerful and eloquent speeches encouraged thousands of bonded laborers and child slaves to follow his example. He brought awareness and promoted education so that others could stand up for their rights and end the injustice in sweat shops around the world.
In 1983, Iqbal Masih was born in the poor community of Maridke outside of Lahore, Pakistan. His family was financially burdened, and his father Saif Masih decided to leave when Iqbal was young. When he was 4 years old, Iqbal’s mother Inayat needed funds to pay for his older brother’s wedding. Because the family was already in debt, she took out a loan in Iqbal’s name from a local businessman. However, when their debt went unpaid for two years she was forced to “loan” Iqbal as a laborer to pay off the debt.
Iqbal became one of the many child bonded laborers at the carpet factory. Despite working 14 hour days six days a week, Iqbal never earned enough money to pay off the debt, the cost of his “apprenticeship”, his tools, his food, fines for his mistakes or the rising interest. Though considered “debt bonded” he was really like millions of other children who were enslaved to their employers without hope of earning their freedom. Bonded labor, child labor and slave labor were all outlawed in Pakistan. However, it ran rampant due to a corrupt government and a police force that was living off the bribes of local business men.
“Children should have pens in their hands not tools” – Iqbal Masih
When Iqbal was 10 years old he made up his mind to escape. He had endured hot, cramped conditions, air filled with wool debris and countless whippings, beatings and cuttings whenever his work slowed. Though stunted by malnutrition and weakened by lack of exercise, Iqbal and a few of his friends escaped. He ran to the local police and explained how the employer was beating the children and keeping them as slaves. Unfortunately, the police officer was more willing to receive the “finder’s fee” for escaped slaves and returned Iqbal to Arshad, Iqbal’s owner. At the direction of the police officer, Iqbal was chained to the carpet machine and Arshad forced him back to work with a combination of physical abuse and starvation.
At the age of 12, Iqbal found away to attend a freedom day celebration held by the Brick Layer Unions. There, Iqbal heard about his rights as a laborer and that debt slavery was outlawed a few years before. In addition to the law against slavery, the government had cancelled all debts with businesses so they could in turn free those in debted to them. However, very few businesses actually released their slaves. When others were asked to speak before the crowd Iqbal volunteered. After hearing Iqbal’s story, one of the union leaders named Ehsan Ullah Khan organized an effort to free Iqbal from bondage. After much convincing about the illegality of his factory, Arshad freed Iqbal and some of the other child slaves.
The 12 year old Iqbal became a prominent leader of the anti-slave movement in Pakistan. He attended the Bonded Labour Liberation Front (BLLF) School for former child slaves and quickly completed a four year education in only two years. As his understanding of labor laws and human rights grew, he began using his energetic personality to speak on behalf of the enslaved workers. He would sneak into factories and begin asking the children about their experiences and if they were slaves. Even though this was an incredibly risky job, his malnourished body and stunted growth made him appear to be only around six years old so he was rarely perceived as a threat.
The BLLF sent him to speak at businesses and demonstrations all over Pakistan where bonded slavery was known to exist. With his powerful personality he educated the slave laborers and encouraged them to escape. Despite death threats from the organized business mafias that dominated the communities, Iqbal continued to speak against their practices with confidence and eloquence. It is estimated that over 3,000 Pakistani Children escaped their owners after visiting rallies, hearing speeches and attending meetings put on by the BLLF that year.
Because of his powerful story, Iqbal Masih began visiting other countries, raising awareness of child slaves and advocating for their freedom. Everywhere he went he inspired others (especially children) to become involved in the mission to end child slavery.
“I would like to do what Abraham Lincoln did… I would like to do it in Pakistan” -Iqbal Masih
After a visit to speak in the United States in December of 1994, Iqbal returned home to Pakistan. He would spend his last few months of life attending school in hopes of becoming a lawyer to fight on behalf of bonded laborers.
On Palm Sunday, (the 16th of April, 1995) Iqbal was assassinated after being shot in the back with a 12 gauge shotgun. He was riding home on a bicycle with some friends after attending mass earlier in the day.
The official police report claims that it was an accidental firing by a local farmer named Ashraf Hero. They claimed he confessed to the accident after hours of being tortured. Because Iqbal was a prominent enemy of the local Carpet Manufacturer Mafia, The Pakistani Human Rights Commission looked into the murder but quickly agreed with the police story. Despite the official report, most everyone believes that Iqbal Masih was assassinated by an agent of the Carpet Manufacturer Mafia who already held influence over the police and that Ashraf Hero was framed for the murder.
Iqbal Masih is our hero because he took courageous action on behalf of child slaves and bonded laborers in Pakistan and around the world. Despite his short life, his passionate and powerful message encouraged thousands to seek freedom and inspired many more around the world to join in his efforts. There are still an estimated 75,000 slaves in Pakistan Today. One organization, Free the Children was started by a Canadian youth named Craig Kielburger who had heard about Iqbal’s story and wanted to help make a difference.

Iqbal Masih

Cizre-Massacre-2016-02-07-01

The Turkish state has massacred 60 civilians using chemical weapons

 For the past two months, in front of the world’s eyes, the Turkish state has been conducting a systematic massacre in Cizre. Tens of thousands of civilians have been subjected to heavy bombardment and street killings.  For several days, state forces had been bombing two different buildings that contained wounded civilians; they have now killed almost 60 people using chemical weapons.

According to reports from Cizre the people were killed by chemical weapons and the AKP government media (TRT-News) has been announcing this as a victory. In the face of a significant resistance from the Kurdish people the AKP fascist state has committed genocide in Cizre, deploying unethical and illegal methods.

  • We call upon the EU and UN to urgently declare military and economic sanctions against Turkey. 
  •  We demand that Turkey be tried for its crimes against humanity and war crimes. 
  • We call upon all people to show solidarity with the Kurdish people.

Kurdistan National Congress ─ KNK

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