Machholz's Blog

What is truth?


Originally posted on NAMA Wine Lake:

“We will amend the rules to ensure that no senior public servant (including political appointees) or Minister can work in the private sector in any area involving a potential conflict of interest with their former area of public employment, until at least two years have elapsed after they have left the public service” Fine Gael/Labour Programme for Government March 2011

Fine Gael and Labour came to power with a programme for government which promised to strengthen safeguards to prevent state employees with privileged access to confidential information and policy, from quitting to work in the private sector where they might expect to be enriched by virtue of formerly privileged access. This followed a decade of so-called “revolving doors” which is a misnomer because it is used to describe one-way traffic where senior civil servants including secretary generals at government Departments left for lucrative positions in the private sector

What the…

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“fake economist unmasked”.

The story in the Guardian is of a Portuguese chap who convinced everybody, possibly including himself, that he had taught economics in the USA and even worked in the world bank. He debated issues on the economy regularly on Portuguese media, and became a celebrity and celebrated for his easy style and making simple of the complex.

There is of course much glee being rubbed on hands at this – many people consider the whole activity of economics to be applied charlatasim. But it raises a question on the nature of the business.

There is to me no such thing as the profession of an economist. A profession, I suggest, is on that has rules and regulations, standards for entry and exit, a recognized way of doing things. Accounting is one ; so also is nursing, or taxidermy. Economics has none of these. The deficiencies in modern (macro) economics have been well publicized over the last half decade : a read of the blogs of Krugman, Simon Wren Lewis, Mark Thoma, or a host more will show both an evisceration of the abstruseness of much of modern macro modeling and a deep searching of the soul by practitioners of a craft………………………..

full article at source: http://www.irishbusinessblog.com/2013/01/30/pretending-to-be-an-economist-not-really-such-a-bad-thing/

 


German Economy: Returning to zero growth in January 2013

by

Germany’s CESIfo published the latests (January 2013) assessment of the state of the German economy in Manufacturing and these are slightly more upbeat than at the end of Q4 2012, albeit with some clear seasonal supports.

“In manufacturing the business climate indicator continued to rise. Manufacturers are more satisfied with their current business situation than last month. The improvement in expectations with regard to future business developments continued into the New Year. Optimism is returning. After three successive declines, capacity utilisation rates also rose.”

As per data below, in manufacturing ‘optimism’ is not exactly ‘returning’, but rather ‘pessimism is receding’, as business expectations remain below 0 on balances:

full article at source: http://trueeconomics.blogspot.de/


New Highs- Bull market continues

Sent into us by Val,Thanks !

by: Peter Brown

Market reached new highs yesterday. After a pull back to support the market put in a strong rally above 1500. There seems no end to the strenght of this market. Driven by a need for return and the lack of interest rates anywhere else it would seem everyone is piling into stocks. It will lead to a correction eventually but we could be a lot higher before that happens.

Today we are off to a strong start. 1498 is support and 1506 is short term target.Market is not overbought so we can go higher. If there is to be a correction it will require some fairly bad news, so Friday NFP numbers are probably the only chance. This market is a buy no question about it. Wait for the dips.

Euro is on a burner higher. 1.3500 and above. There is little on the charts and expect further gains once the stock market rally continues.

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