I believe I was one of the very few to declare Greece a foregone default in February 2010 (I Think It’s Confirmed, Greece Will Be the First Domino to Fall and then with with more specificity a month later As I Explicitly Forewarned, Greece Is Well On Its Way To Default, and Previously Published Numbers Were Waaaayyy Too Optimistic!). By the 2nd quarter of 2010 I was one of the very few to clearly and articulately detail exactly how Greece would default with specific structures in play- What is the Most Likely Scenario in the Greek Debt Fiasco? Restructuring Via Extension of Maturity Dates. Due to a few institutions who were skeptical, I attempted to make it a bit more real – A Comparison of Our Greek Bond Restructuring Analysis to that of Argentina.
Well, Greece defaulted according to plan, despite all of the ”people in the know” saying otherwise – Greek Crisis Is Over, Region Safe”, Prodi Says – I say Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire! - from government officials tothe EC and IMF – Lies, Damn Lies, and Sovereign Truths: Why the Euro is Destined to Collapse! Even after the default, I made clear that this wasn’t over for Greece, for the default actually left Greece worse off fundamentally, not better. Go wonder… I know I did, reference the warning from 5 months ago:
This will be exacerbated by a re-default of the Greek debt that was designed to bail out the defaulted Greek debt. Why will this happen? Greece has severe, rigid structural problems that simply cannot (and will not) be solved by throwing indebted liquidity at it. As a matter of fact, the additional debt simply exacerbates the problem – significantly! This was detailed in the post Beware The Overly Optimistic Greek Speculators As Icarus Comes Crashing Down To Earth!
- Greece Fulfills Its BoomBustBlog Derived Destiny – Shows This Time Really Isn’t All That Different After All!!! (zerohedge.com)
- Greek PM to hold key Paris talks (bbc.co.uk)
- Going for (long-run) Greek growth (ftalphaville.ft.com)
- Euro exit could trigger domino effect: Greece PM (thehindu.com)