At each juncture, I look at the available information as represented in the market price and technical data. I approach the body of evidence without preconception and with an open “beginner’s mind”. I see what I see. I analyze. I develop a set of probabilistic outcomes and then rank them. Then I write my report. I simply report my findings.
There is an extraordinarily high risk of some variety of global market panic in the relatively near term. In fact, I would say that there is a extant setup that is as perfectly aligned for an extreme market event as could be dreamed of by the most bearish of permabears. I’m no permabear, but a thorough review of the current price and technical charts has revealed an inordinate confluence of data points which collaborate to represent a very high risk profile. The current extreme risk profile is amplified by a nearly total lack of recognition on the part of market participants. A deflationary episode, potentially on the scale of the 2008 event, is presently on the table. Investors would do well to at least consider the facts, analysis and conclusions of this report.
I generally place Sentiment and Psychology at the bottom layers of my analysis since it it the softest and least reliable data to consider, but in this case I am going to lead with it simply because there appears to be not merely a significant gap between perception and reality but apparently a widening chasm. Bulls are repeatedly citing “excessive” or “extreme” Bearishness as a primary basis for an ongoing Bullish outlook, but the evidence strongly suggests this is not only not warranted but that the exact opposite conditions prevail.
There appears to be nearly total complacency in the present market environment. Few if any analysts are currently willing to consider a market top of any kind, much less a crash. Based on the findings in my current BullBear Market Report, the continued bold bullishness of the overwhelming majority is simply not supported by the technicals of the market
Full article at source: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34664.html
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