Machholz's Blog

What is truth?

U.S. Consumers: Still Key to the Outlook

By John Mauldin

In the Dec. 2011 issue of my Insight newsletter, I wrote: “In the U.S., major new fiscal stimulus is on hold, and monetary policy is impotent. State and local spending, housing, inventory investment, capital equipment investment and commercial construction are likely to remain subdued. U.S. exports are curtailed by sluggish foreign economies. So U.S. growth in 2012 will be decided by consumer spending, 71% of GDP. With declining real wages and incomes and low confidence, continuing strength in outlays is unlikely. A 2012 U.S. recession is probable, but milder than the 2007-2009 nosedive, unless another financial crisis unfolds.”

Four Months Later

Well, here we are, four months later. Do the economy and financial markets in the ensuing times substantiate our forecast? The chorus of bullish investors bellows, “No!” as they point to the 29% rise in the S&P 500 index from its October 2011 low (Chart 1). They even believe that a continued sluggish economy is good news.

full article at source: http://www.johnmauldin.com/outsidethebox/?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=outsidethebox

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Author: machholz

I started this Blog to get out of my system the absolute rage that I have for the corrupt politicians and their Banker Buddies. I’m an ordinary guy, married with kids, and have firm opinions of what is right and what is wrong. I’m not afraid to say it even when it makes me unpopular. I reproduce news all manner of articles, but will always confirm the source of the articles; this is a compliment to the source of such news pieces. But if you do not agree with this and you are the original author, I will take down any article when requested to do so. I do not assume that the author of the news articles share with my views, I include news articles to give readers another slant to my views or to illustrate what the mainstream news media say on the relevant topic. The opinions expressed are my own but I do not accept liability for them, If I have offended you or made a factual error please put on record the truth by leaving a comment. In addition, my thoughts and opinions change from time to time...I consider this a necessary consequence of having an open mind. This weblog is intended to provide a semi-permanent point in time snapshot and manifestation of the various memes running around my brain, and as such any thoughts and opinions expressed within out-of-date posts may not the same, nor even similar, to those I may hold today. For the record I am currently an Independent political activist and am not affiliated to any political party

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