Cumulative Probability of Default (CPD)
Quantifies the probability of a country being unable to honour its debt obligations over a given time period. Unless otherwise stated, all stated values are for the 5 year CPD. CPD is calculated using an industry standard model fed with proprietary credit data from CMA Data Vision.
Global Sovereign Credit Risk Report
Fourth Quarter 2009
CDS for Spain and Italy have behaved similarly this quarter, as have the CDS for Poland and Austria
Greece has been the worst performer in Europe this quarter as it struggles to get its budget deficit under control. The Greek CDS also showed the worst performance globally over Q3.
Ireland’s efforts to reign in the budget appear to bear fruit. Ireland’s CDS level has stabilised relative to other countries in Western Europe.
Germany has been the best performer in the region this quarter, tighter by 5.5%
| Global Ranking by CPD ( as of 14th Dec 2009) Country | CPD (%) | 5yr Mid (bps) | CMA Implied Rating | CMA Implied Rating Q2 |
| Venezuela | 57.7% | 1265.6 | ccc | cc+ |
| Ukraine | 54.6% | 1344.0 | ccc | cc |
| Argentina | 49.1% | 1033.1 | ccc+ | cc+ |
| Latvia | 30.1% | 538.0 | b+ | b- |
| Iceland | 25.4% | 436.4 | bb- | b |
| Dubai | 25.1% | 422.8 | b+ | bb- |
| Lithuania | 19.3% | 316.8 | bb- | bb- |
| Romania | 17.2% | 276.3 | bb | bbb+ |
| Lebanon | 17.0% | 269.6 | bb | bb- |
| Greece | 16.8% | 215.9 | bb+ | a- |
| Egypt | 15.1% | 234.9 | bbb- | bbb |
| Vietnam | 14.8% | 231.3 | bbb | bbb+ |
| Hungary | 14.3% | 223.6 | bbb | bbb |
| Kazakhstan | 14.2% | 222.6 | bbb | bb- |
| Croatia | 13.9% | 217.1 | bbb | bbb+ |
| Bulgaria | 13.8% | 217.2 | bbb | bbb+ |
| Bahrain | 13.4% | 210.3 | bbb | bbb+ |
| Ireland | 12.4% | 154.2 | bbb+ | a- |
| Indonesia | 12.4% | 190.4 | bbb+ | bbb+ |
| Turkey | 12.2% | 188.1 | bbb+ | bbb+ |
| Russia | 12.2% | 188.7 | bbb+ | bbb |
| Estonia | 11.7% | 183.8 | bbb+ | bbb+ |
| Philippines | 10.8% | 165.5 | a- | bbb+ |
| South Africa | 9.7% | 147.4 | a | a- |
| Abu Dhabi | 9.7% | 147.5 | a- | aa- |
| Colombia | 9.6% | 146.5 | a | a- |
| Mexico | 9.2% | 139.8 | a | a- |
| Panama | 8.8% | 133.5 | a+ | a- |
| Peru | 8.2% | 123.7 | aa- | a |
| Israel | 8.1% | 122.6 | aa | aa |
| Brazil | 8.1% | 121.8 | aa- | a |
| Morocco | 7.8% | 118.5 | aa | aa- |
| Poland | 7.7% | 116.7 | aa | a |
| Spain | 7.7% | 91.3 | aa | aa |
| Italy | 7.6% | 90.8 | aa | aa |
| Tunisia (Central Bank) | 7.5% | 112.3 | aa | aa- |
| South Korea | 7.2% | 86.7 | aa | a |
| Qatar | 6.6% | 100.0 | aa | aa |
| UK | 6.6% | 77.7 | aa | aa |
Source www.cmavision.com
These numbers speak for themselves!
Things are getting worse with the banks and I believe that the government cannot do any worse in managing the nation’s banks than their current management.
So as far as the ordinary punter in the street is concerned the government should nationalize the banks and be done with it!
